Idle Talk
The book "Survivors of the Future World" is not long. I started reading it yesterday and finished it this morning. I read it using the WeChat Reading app and made annotations on some interesting parts. I just found out that I can copy all the book excerpts with one click on the WeChat Reading webpage, so I decided to copy and share it here.
"Survivors of the Future World"
Author: Ruǎn Yīfēng
◆ Preface
Except for high technology, almost all industries will not have the same high growth rate as before.
This is the author's perception, which also aligns with some of my views. Due to the automation and artificial intelligence replacing many traditional industries, the income of workers in these fields cannot increase. Whenever people demand higher wages, employers turn to using machines. As there is currently no more efficient method than automation, the development of these industries has encountered a bottleneck. The high-tech industry, on the other hand, still has room for growth as it is in the exploration stage. However, not everyone can work in the high-tech industry.
◆ Reality
This series of events marks a breakthrough in artificial intelligence, and humans no longer have the possibility of defeating computers in any mental game.
More and more workers are realizing that they can get a job not because employers need their labor skills, but because humans are cheaper than machines.
As a worker, you cannot control the fate of the company you work for. You should be prepared that the company you serve may close down at any time.
The closer to the application layer, the faster the technological upgrades and replacements. It is becoming increasingly rare for someone to learn a skill and rely on it for 30 years.
The "lifelong learning" required to maintain competitiveness is not simply reading books or attending lectures in your spare time. It requires your full-time dedication and exhaustive learning.
If lifelong learning is the only way to employment, then for most people, there is no way out.
In the future, humanity may be divided into two main classes: a new and advanced elite class, intelligent, wealthy, with better genes and longer lifespans; and a new useless proletariat class, becoming increasingly impoverished, waiting for death, possibly turning into a crowd without jobs, goals, and passing time wearing VR headsets.
The situation described here is relatively better compared to the author's hypothetical scenario later on. Although the elite class seems perfect, the poor still have a way out, even if it means becoming a crowd waiting to die.
The future "working poor" will not only include low-skilled workers at the bottom, but also many highly educated white-collar workers working in office buildings. The employment environment in 2023 is exactly as described in this sentence.
Modern technology is highly advanced, and human lifespans are getting longer, but work cannot accumulate wealth. Therefore, "poor youth, mediocre middle age, and destitute old age" have become the inevitable fate for most people. The author is referring to the situation in Japan here. But will China have a similar trend? Although I do not hope for this, individual desires cannot change the trend of development. I started reading a new book today, "The Hypocrisy of Medicine," and the author asks whether advanced medicine has extended our lifespan or deprived people of the right to a good death.
In April 2016, Udacity entered China and launched the Chinese version of "Udacity," which immediately caught my interest. This is because it did something unprecedented: awarding online diplomas.
Contemporary universities originated from the European monastery model. Students had to undergo years of hard study and assessment to graduate. If they wanted to become senior monks, they had to endure a few more years. In addition, there were mentors as supervisors to prevent them from learning heretical teachings.
Four years is enough for a person to become a senior professional or even an expert in any field. However, our university students, after four years of undergraduate education, are not even experts in their fields, let alone strong performers.
Times have changed, and diplomas are becoming less important. Those things linked to diplomas are gradually becoming detached.
University courses are designed for those who do not know what to study. Do not let these courses restrict you just because you cannot find a direction for yourself.
◆ Career
We should not take the current employment system for granted. It is not the only model for the functioning of human society, and it was not in the past, nor will it necessarily be in the future.
The employment system is a biased system: it benefits capital and disadvantages labor.
The real problem with the employment system is the unequal status of labor and capital. Decision-making is always in the hands of capital, while labor passively accepts the decisions made by capital.
After a company announces layoffs, the stock price actually rises because the market believes it is beneficial for the company's development. Losing your job is painful, but shareholders are happy because their stocks become more valuable.
The employment system, and even the overall contemporary social system, favors capital. Under this system, life for labor is completely passive: they cannot fully enjoy the benefits and instead bear all the costs.
The ultimate role of management is to make it irrelevant who leaves, as long as the company can operate normally.
What I am thinking more about is how to leave this system and still be able to survive.
True breakthroughs rely on self-improvement in one's spare time.
Only interests, and only interests, will give you an inexhaustible passion to delve into and become better.
The donkey does not know why it has to carry such a heavy iron pipe to the mountaintop. It just does it because its master demands it, obediently and tirelessly. Even if there is a moment of resistance or doubt in its heart, once the master applies pressure, it no longer questions and returns to its normal state, silently allowing itself to be manipulated.
The donkeys participate in the creation process, but who will remember them? Their fate is to move on to the next project carrying iron pipes.
Many current executives are actually far removed from the business. If you ask them to do something that a grassroots employee does, they cannot do it. They have not done anything grand or strategic themselves. They just have meetings all day, allocating tasks. Most of them seem busy, staying in meetings until late at night, but how much help do they really provide to the business? Everyone has their own judgment!
You better treat Plan B as an opportunity to escape Plan A and pursue the job you dream of in the medium term.
◆ Methods
"Entrepreneurship" is too formal of a term. "Self-employment" is more accurate, which means working for yourself.
Entrepreneurship does not necessarily have to be associated with capital or technology. As long as you work for yourself, survive on profits rather than wages, that is entrepreneurship.
When you start your own company, you may worry about many things, but you will not feel like you are wasting your life. On the other hand, when working for a large company, you often have this feeling.
For the changes that are bound to happen, a recession in the macro economy is the best opportunity.
Some people think, "The macroeconomic situation is not good, so I better avoid starting a business at this time." This kind of thinking is as misleading as the thinking of some people during an economic bubble, "If I start a business at this time, I can get rich."
If you are not rejected every day, it means your life goals are not ambitious enough.
He has several entrepreneurial suggestions that I find inspiring and can be considered as our principles.
First, the core issue of entrepreneurship is what you can do for your customers.
Second, you need to create something different.
Third, do not aim too high. The first thing is to ensure survival today, then survive for a month, then a quarter, then a year, and then worry about the following year.
Fourth, pay attention to details, which is a characteristic of all successful people.
Fifth, if your company cannot generate profits, do not borrow money.
Sixth, you need to maintain enthusiasm.
Do not think that you can invent a completely new business model. In reality, there are only a few ways to make money in the world. It is difficult to invent a completely new way to make money. What you should do is make full use of proven business models that others have already demonstrated to be effective.
It is difficult to keep a product simple and easy to use while also having a lot of new features.
Creating a competitive new product should not focus on having more features than others, but on having a completely different market positioning.
When managing a business, you have two strategies.
Strategy 1: Single-focus strategy.
Strategy 2: Diversification strategy.
Most people only have one small shovel, and they have to rely on themselves for everything else. In this case, it is best not to adopt the second strategy because the shallowly buried gold has already been dug up by big shovels or lucky people and will not be left for you. In fact, your only chance is to keep digging in one direction. Of course, this can be quite difficult, and even if you dig your whole life, you may not find gold.
It is not just you who is looking for gold; everyone is looking for gold. Those easily found gold has almost certainly been picked up by someone else.
The second strategy is actually ineffective. Even if you dig a thousand small holes, you will not find gold.
If you want to leave a mark in life, dig a big hole. People will remember you. This is the trace you leave behind.
The employment system, the core system of capitalism, is very disadvantageous for labor and has no future.
Your career revolves around your assets, not your income.
All the surveyed elite figures, without exception, invest a lot of time and practice diligently. The more accomplished a person is, the more diligent they seem to be, and the longer they spend studying the business.
Do not do what others tell you to do. Young man, do not become a chef who takes orders and cooks whatever is requested. Do not accept a job where others command you what to do and how to do it. You should go to a place where people appreciate your ideas about the product, believe in your abilities, and let you do it freely.
He realized from then on that it was not enough to just realize a product; you must also participate in deciding how to realize it.
◆ Case Studies
People need social interaction, and we need opportunities to connect with others. Face-to-face conversations are one form of social interaction, and chatting on the internet is another.
◆ Future
Once there is physiological inequality between people, society will undergo significant changes.
Death is a technological failure.
Medically, death is defined as brain death.
Although I love my body like others, if I can live up to 200 years relying on silicon-based materials, I will not hesitate to give up my physical body.
If in the future, artificial intelligence replaces humans in decision-making, then terms like individuality, personality, and self lose much of their meaning. The ancient Greek temple was inscribed with the words "know thyself," and Apple co-founder Steve Jobs said you should listen to your inner voice. These things are no longer necessary.
Do not waste time studying philosophy, meditation, or psychoanalysis. You should systematically collect your biostatistical data and allow algorithms to analyze this data and tell you who you are and what you should do.
Intelligence can exist independently without consciousness.
The separation of consciousness and intelligence is most welcomed by companies because what they need is intelligence, not consciousness.
Western democracy may no longer be necessary because the premise of one person, one vote in citizen voting is that everyone knows what they want.
Contemporary society is like a prison made up of machines. Learning technology can help you escape from the prison.
Sometimes I wonder if, when I reach my mother's age, I will also be confused by the new technologies of that time, like reading a book in a foreign language, not knowing how to use them.
A technology-dependent high-tech and highly automated society is also a very fragile society.
Crises only accelerate technological development, not slow it down.
I now believe that the factors that dominate history are politics in the short term (one to several years), the economy in the medium term (several years to several decades), and technology in the long term (several decades to several centuries).
Only technology can create new things.
Once a major new technology emerges, political and economic systems - actively or passively - will ultimately be reconstructed to maximize the power of that technology. This is why technology is the ultimate determining factor in the evolution of human society.
"Industrial Society and Its Future."
Throw this decaying system into the garbage dump and bravely bear the consequences.
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